We’re at the midpoint of the 2018-2019 NFL Regular Season and a few teams in the Top 10 ATS are big surprises. At the beginning of the season, nobody thought the Kansas City Chiefs and New Orleans Saints would rest atop the against the spread standings.
Two other teams in the Top 5, the Chicago Bears and Carolina Panthers, are also big surprises. In fact, outside of the New England Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers, the entire Top 10 feels like a huge surprise.
What does this mean for online sportsbook operators? They must jump on their pay per head software to ensure they don’t take it in the shorts in the second half of the season. Check out our thoughts on the first half’s ATS winners along with predictions for the second half.
Top 10 NFL Midpoint Against the Spread Winners
- Kansas City Chiefs 8-1-0 ATS
- New Orleans Saints 6-2-0 ATS
- New England Patriots 6-3-0 ATS
- Carolina Panthers 5-3-0 ATS
- Chicago Bears 5-3-0 ATS
- Pittsburgh Steelers 5-3-0 ATS
- Washington Redskins 5-3-0 ATS
- Detroit Lions 5-3-0 ATS
- Minnesota Vikings 5-3-1 ATS
- Tennessee Titans 4-3-0 ATS
What do Chiefs, Saints, Panthers, and Patriots have in common?
The Chiefs, Saints, Panthers, and Patriots, the Top 4 teams against the spread in the first half of the season, all have the same thing in common: they rely primarily on their excellent offenses to outscore their opponents.
Kansas City averages 36.3 points per, ranking first in the NFL. The Saints average 34.9 points per, ranking second in the league while the Patriots average 30 points per, ranking 4th. Carolina only averages 27.5, ranking 11th, but in their last couple of games, both wins and covers, they scored 36 and 42.
The only so-called non-offensive powerhouse in the Top 5 are the Chicago Bears. The Bears, though, rank 5th in the NFL in points per game at 29.4. The Steelers also have a great offense.
After the Top 6, the rest of the 10 are anomalies. Detroit’s offense can be good or bad while although Minnesota can score points, they like to rely on their defense like they did last season. Tennessee’s the strange one. Even though the Titans only score 15 points per game, they rank in the Top 10 due to their 4-3 winning against the spread record.
Washington’s also somewhat of an anomaly this season. The Redskins average only 20 points per game, but they’ve got a great defense and they play in the NFC East Division. The NFC East isn’t necessarily bad. It’s not great, either.
NFL Second Half ATS Predictions
Kansas City, New Orleans, Pittsburgh, and New England should continue their against the spread success in the second half of the season. All 3 teams boast offenses that are too good to take backward steps unless injuries hit their offensive lines or quarterbacks. Even if they lose a skill player to injury, all 3 are deep. Make sure to use per head software when applicable on Chiefs’, Saints’, Steelers’, and Patriots’ games.
Carolina, and Chicago could both have trouble covering in the second half. The Panthers must battle the Saints twice while they’ve got another game against top offensive squad Atlanta. They’re also at Pittsburgh and at Detroit in Week 10 and Week 11. Panthers could have trouble outscoring all those opponents.
Chicago could have trouble not only against the spread, but also straight up. In the second half, the Bears battle Detroit and Minnesota twice. They also must host the Rams on Dec. 9 and the rival Green Bay Packers on Dec. 16.
Things could get ugly for Bears bettors. Consider shelving the layoff account if Bears are over bet in any game from Nov. 11 on.
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