The Kansas City Chiefs brought their record to 4-0 after rallying for a 27-23 win over the Denver Broncos on NFL Week 4 Monday Night football. The Chiefs victory caused losses in Vegas sportsbooks after late money sent the Chiefs from -5.5 favorite to a -3.5 favorites. Check out how KC’s victory went down!
Kansas City Chiefs 27, Denver Broncos 23
Key Plays: Mahomes Magic Rules the Broncos
Everyone, and rightly so, has talked about Patrick Mahomes awesome left-handed throw on 3rd and 5 that kept the game winning drive going. The left-handed flip pass sure looked nice, and it turned out to be the most important play of the night, but Mahomes had made plays like that throughout the game.
Kansas City’s quarterback has shown that he’s one of the best in the NFL. He might be the best if you account for both physical skills and football acuity. Mahomes just seemed to know where the open receivers were every time he got flushed from the pocket.
He had the strength to throw dart after dart across his body to receivers that found open spots as the defense rolled the way Mahomes rolled. Even though Mahomes has better stats in games this season, he showed his true skills on Monday night because the Denver defense got into his face all night.
It takes a highly-skilled quarterback to not only outrun Von Miller, but to complete a pass on the run while throwing across his body. Has anyone ever seen a quarterback do that before Patrick Mahomes did it this past Monday night?
The Refs Helped Cost Denver the Game…and Vegas Sportsbooks Money
You’ve got to love NFL refs, right? The clock watching ref in Monday night’s game missed that it went all the way down to 0 on a key play during the Chiefs game winning drive. What happened next had every Broncos’ fan in the stadium cursing the referees.
Patrick Mahomes threw a 37-yard pass to Demetrius Harris. The play had been a 3rd and 7. If the Chiefs had lost 5 yards, the play would have become a 3rd and 12. Mahomes completed pass took Kansas City from Denver’s 46-yard line to the Broncos’ 11-yard line.
That not only put Kansas City into field goal range to tie the game, but it also put the Chiefs into a great position to score a TD, which is exactly what the Chiefs did. Kansas City punched it into the end zone only 4 plays later.
Not only did the referee, who’s sole job was to watch the clock, miss that the clock had turned 0 cost the Chiefs the game, it cost Vegas sportsbooks profit. Vegas sportsbooks hadn’t laid off enough money on the Chiefs once the line dived to Kansas City -3.5 Also, 85% of the money line dollars landed on the Chiefs at -190 to beat the Broncos.
That’s huge money losses that Vegas had to pay out because some referee failed to notice that the clock had struck 0.
How Bettors Net Bookies Saved Their Profit
Bettors Net bookies most likely didn’t suffer on the referee misstep the way that Vegas sportsbooks did. Bettors Net bookies used a couple of per head tools to manage action on the Kansas City Chiefs.
First, they laid off money wagered on KC to cover the -3.5 spread. Laying off dollars is a great way to cut potential monetary risk. Second, bookies moved the line to promote betting on the Broncos. Unlike Vegas sportsbooks who move lines based on action, Bettors net pay per head agents can move the line to promote action the other way.
With both their layoff accounts and line movers, BN bookies prevented the liabilities that Vegas sportsbooks suffered after the referee’s massive miss. What else did Bettors Net bookies do to prevent huge losses? They set max betting limits on the Kansas City -190 money line.
Chiefs and Broncos Look Ahead
In Week 5, Kansas City’s a -3 favorite against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Already close to 70% of NFL handicappers believe the Chiefs cover the spread. But, pay per head agents should only use their line mover and or layoff account when necessary.
Jacksonville has one of the top defenses in the NFL. The Jaguars should come up with a big time strategy to contain Mahomes. Don’t just decide that KC covers the spread just because bettors believe they do.
The Broncos head to New York to face the Jets as a +1 dog. Denver should beat the Jets, but risk-loving bookies might want to see how the line moves before using their layoff accounts. NYJ plays well at home while Denver might still suffer from Mahomesitis after the Monday night loss.
NFL Betting Stats Update
Top 5 ATS and Over/Under
- Kansas City Chiefs 4-0-0 ATS, 3-1-0 O/U
- L.A. Rams 3-1-0 ATS, 2-2-0 O/U
- Baltimore Ravens 3-1-0 ATS, 3-1-0 O/U
- Chicago Bears 3-1-0 ATS, 3-1-0 O/U
- Cincinnati Bengals 3-1-0 ATS, 3-1-0 O/U
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