Denver waltzed into State Farm Stadium in Glendale, AZ and dominated the home team Cardinals. Odds makers didn’t have this one correct by a mile. We check out what happened in the game before a deep dive into the against the spread action, the total action, and how bookies could have used pay per head software to score big time on the game.
Broncos Make Rosen Look Like a Rookie
Denver Broncos 45, Arizona Cardinals 10
Key Plays: 2 Pick Sixes Off Rookie QB Josh Rosen, Emanuel Sanders Doing His Slash Impression
Former UCLA quarterback Josh Rosen had played well during his first few starts in the NFL. He hadn’t lit the league on fire like he proclaimed he’d do after becoming the 10th pick in the NFL Draft. More importantly, and what made Cardinals’ fans giddy for the future, Rosen hadn’t thrown many interceptions. He’d been careful with the football.
All that carefulness went out the window in the stunning Week 7 loss to the Denver Broncos. Rosen made bad pass after bad pass. Broncos’ linebacker Todd Davis returned one of Rosen’s deflected passes for a TD. Cornerback Chris Harris took another one of Rosen’s ill-advised throws 53 yards for a touchdown.
The Cardinals’ quarterback accounted for 3 interceptions and 2 fumbles. As he said, “I obviously didn’t play up to my standard or close to it.”
One player that did perform up to anybody’s standards was Denver wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders. Sanders threw a TD pass. He also caught a TD pass. Sanders should have gotten the Broncos’ game ball. Unless, Vance Joseph rushed it over to the Cardinals’ locker room and handed it to Rosen.
NFL Handicappers Liked Denver, Not All Bet On Broncos
Differences exist between NFL handicappers and NFL bettors. Handicappers figure out which team deserves backing against the spread or on the moneyline. NFL handicappers thought by a large margin that Denver deserved favoritism. In fact, the line opened Broncos -1.5 and quickly went up to Broncos -2.5.
Right before kickoff, the line dived to Broncos -1. That essentially made the game a pick. It means that even though handicappers had determined that Denver would dominate the Cardinals, not all handicappers put money on the Broncos. Not only that, but NFL bettors who do their own handicapping, who publicly don’t share whom they like, decided to go the other way, to back the Cardinals against the spread.
Obviously, per head agents could have made a killing if Cardinals had been over bet in their sportsbooks and they hadn’t used their layoff accounts. But, using your layoff account, no matter which squad was over bet, might have been the smarter move. Without Rosen’s 3 picks and 2 fumbles and some creative play-calling on the Broncos’ side, who knows?
Football’s played on fields, not via osmosis. Things could have gone differently if Rosen had played like he normally does.
Broncos Rout Leads to Over the Total
The 42 total made sense because neither team’s offense had shown that it could move the football well. The game went over only because of Denver’s defense. So, under players had it correct. The theory played out.
The problem was the 14 points from the Broncos’ returned for touchdown interceptions. Without those 14 points, the game would’ve gone under by a point.
Cardinals Rebuilding Broncos Are Too
Don’t let the score fool you. The Denver Broncos have a ton of work to do on offense before they can compete with Kansas City and the L.A. Chargers in the AFC West. Quarterback Case Keenum completed 14-of-21 for 161 yards. He only threw one touchdown, which is the same amount of TDs as interceptions. But, Denver did rush for 131 yards.
Cardinals seem intent on throwing Rosen to the wolves, which is okay. That’s the best way for him to improve. Rookie quarterbacks with strong minds like Josh Rosen need games like this to develop.
Broncos and Cardinals Look Ahead
Denver battles 6-0 ATS Kansas City in their next. The Broncos only lost 23-27 in the first game. Denver should be a huge underdog even if KC doesn’t cover the spread on Sunday against Cincinnati. Should you use your layoff account? Let’s wait and see how the Chiefs perform. Right now, they’re 6-0 against the spread. If they go 7-0 against the spread, impossible not to use the layoff account if KC’s favored by less than double-digits over the Broncos.
Arizona battles San Francisco in their next matchup. Cardinals upset the 49ers 28-18 in the first game. If Rosen settles down, no reason Arizona shouldn’t keep it close for a possible win. Cardinals should be dogs, which means online bookies might consider max betting limits on AZ to win straight up.
NFL Betting Stats Update
Top 5 ATS and Over/Under
- Kansas City Chiefs 6-0-0 ATS, 5-2-0 O/U
- Detroit Lions 4-1-0 ATS, 2-3-0 O/U
- Baltimore Ravens 4-2-0 ATS, 4-2-0 O/U
- Cincinnati Bengals 4-2-0 ATS, 4-2-0 O/U
- Miami Dolphins 4-2-0 ATS, 4-2-0 O/U
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